Inflation readings can cause short‑term movements in mortgage rates by influencing expectations of future monetary policy.
When those reports diverge from forecasts, markets often adjust their outlook for interest‑rate decisions, which can lead to temporary shifts in lending costs.
Based on my years of reporting on real‑estate trends, I’ve consistently found that the 10‑year Treasury yield remains the primary benchmark lenders use when pricing most U.S. mortgages.
That said, the April Producer Price Index (PPI) rose an unexpectedly high 6% on an annual basis, the largest gain since December 2022, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on May 13. And that appeared to contribute to an increase in the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM).
On May 13, the average 30-year FRM grew on May 13 to 6.57%, its highest since March 27, according to Mortgage News Daily (MND) .
“Whereas yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn’t have an obviously negative impact on rates, today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) did,” wrote Mortgage News Daily. “Both are big inflation reports. CPI is typically much more likely to cause a reaction in rates, but PPI showed a much bigger surge in inflation this morning.”
“Even then, the underlying bond market wasn’t too much worse by the end of the day and the mortgage-specific bond market actually made a full recovery,” continued MND Chief Operating Officer Matthew Graham. “But that recovery was too gradual and shallow for the average lender to adjust their rates today.”
Alongside those current developments in inflation and mortgage rates, real estate technology company Redfin has released a report on other big housing market changes that it believes will trigger a shift for homebuyers and sellers.
Redfin predicts major housing market change
Buyer leverage in the U.S. housing market has been steadily growing for months, but that momentum appears to be leveling off. The advantage buyers have enjoyed may have already reached its high point, according to Redfin.
“There were an estimated 46.5% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in April, down from 47.5% the month before and a high of 48.9% in December 2025,” Redfin reported. “It’s still very much a buyer’s market, but it’s no longer a strengthening buyer’s market.”
Redfin explained the current real estate dynamic and then offered a prediction.
“Homebuyer demand has been dwindling for months, but finally ticked up in April thanks to a strengthening job market and declining recession risk,” wrote Redfin senior economist Asad Khan. “More house hunters entering the market helped narrow the gap between the number of buyers and sellers.”
“If the number of buyers continues to grow, more homeowners may see it as an opportunity to list their homes, helping bring the market out of this deep freeze,” Khan predicted.
Redfin explains real estate buyer’s market vs. seller’s market
When the number of home sellers exceeds the number of buyers, buyers generally gain more leverage because they have more properties to choose from. For that reason, a market with a significantly higher supply of sellers is typically labeled a buyer’s market.
A housing market is considered a buyer’s market when there are more than 10% additional sellers than buyers, according to Redfin’s framework. Conversely, if there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers, Redfin classifies it as a seller’s market.
When the difference falls within plus or minus 10%, Redfin views the conditions as a balanced market.
“Of course, it’s only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy,” Redfin wrote. “High housing costs and economic uncertainty have caused many house hunters to retreat, creating the imbalance of buyers and sellers we see today.”
Redfin’s estimates indicate that roughly 1 million buyers were active in the housing market in April, a 2% increase from March, marking the strongest month‑to‑month growth in over a year. At the same time, the number of sellers reached about 1.5 million, rising 1.3%
“While that’s the largest increase in a year, it’s still smaller than the increase in buyers, which is why the gap between buyers and sellers is shrinking,” Redfin wrote.
Redfin noted in March that many homeowners who pulled their listings off the market last year are now putting them back up for sale, hoping to benefit from stronger spring demand. That trend may be contributing to the recent rise in seller activity.
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Redfin highlights housing market changes by metropolitan areas
The analysis shows that 34 of the 49 major U.S. metropolitan areas Redfin examined still fall into buyer’s‑market territory. However, in many of these areas, the advantage buyers hold is starting to weaken, making them less strongly tilted in buyers’ favor than before, according to Redfin.
- 19 buyer’s markets saw the gap between buyers and sellers narrow in April, giving sellers a modest increase in negotiating leverage.
- Activity in West Palm Beach, Fla. showed 80.2% more sellers than buyers in April, and the gap contracted by 10.2 percentage points from March’s 90.4%, the largest decline among the 19 metros. Luxury‑market demand in West Palm Beach continued to strengthen due to increased interest from out‑of‑state buyers.
- Seven major U.S. metros qualified as seller’s markets in April, up from five in March and marking the highest total in nine months.
- Market dynamics in Nassau County, N.Y. showed 28.4% fewer sellers than buyers, making it the strongest seller’s market.
- Conditions in Newark, N.J. showed 25.5% fewer home sellers than buyers.
- Housing market patterns in Montgomery County, Pa. showed 24.7% fewer home sellers than buyers.
- Readings in New Brunswick, N.J. showed 16.5% fewer home sellers than buyers.
- Market indicators in Providence, R.I. showed 14.3% fewer sellers than buyers.
- Market figures in San Francisco showed 10.9% fewer sellers than buyers.
- Market measurements in Milwaukee showed 10.6% fewer sellers than buyers.
- Home‑price trends in seller’s markets showed an average year‑over‑year increase of 3.9% across the seven seller’s markets in April.
- Home‑price growth in buyer’s markets averaged 1.2% across the 34 buyer’s markets, underscoring the stronger leverage sellers hold in seller‑leaning areas.
- In Miami, real estate conditions showed 137% more sellers than buyers in April, making it the strongest buyer’s market.
- Market balance in Nashville showed 125% more sellers than buyers.
- In San Antonio, market balance showed 112% more sellers than buyers.
- Market balance in Houston showed 108% more sellers than buyers.
- In Las Vegas, market balance showed 103% more sellers than buyers, rounding out the most buyer‑favored metros.
(Source: Redfin)
Related: Zillow forecasts mortgage rate, housing market shift
