June 23 gave me three reasons to pay closer attention to International Business Machines (IBM), also known simply as “Big Blue.” All three arrived together in a period of less than 48 hours.
- June 23, JPMorgan analyst Brian Essex upgraded IBM to Overweight from Neutral, raising his price target to $291 from $270, according to TheStreet.
- President Trump signed two executive orders on quantum computing on Monday, June 22, according to The White House.
- June 23, Veteran NYSE floor trader Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle, someone who has been navigating markets since before most retail investors were born, publicly laid out why IBM is his quantum computing play of choice, and put an aggressive $410 price target on the table.
This name has become my quantum computing play.
Guilfoyle continued to write in his “Trade-Ideas” newsletter on TheStreet Pro. “I believe ultimately that IBM will be the winner in this space.”
IBM shares were trading around $261.72 on the morning of June 24, according to Yahoo Finance, down on the day, bucking a broader bearish trend in tech. Guilfoyle’s response to that? “Sell IBM? No thanks. Buy more before it hits that 21-day EMA? Almost definitely.”
Also Read: History of IBM: Company timeline, milestones & facts
Why JPMorgan just upgraded IBM
Essex’s upgrade wasn’t about quantum computing, which I find interesting, given that it’s Guilfoyle’s primary thesis. The JPMorgan analyst cited increased confidence in a software acceleration in the second half of 2026, according to TheStreet.
Specifically, Essex pointed to Red Hat and OpenShift migration tailwinds, growing AI-driven container adoption, and the reacceleration of automation as HashiCorp gains C-suite sponsorship. He sees room for multiple expansions. Essex carries a slightly better than four-star rating on TipRanks.
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That upgrade came on top of Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow reiterating his Buy rating on IBM on June 15 with a $350 price target, according to TheStreet. Two separate firms, two separate theses, both landing bullish.
IBM’s Q1 fiscal 2026 results gave both analysts something to work with. Revenue came in at $15.9 billion, up 9% year-over-year (YoY). Software revenue — the segment Essex is focused on — grew 11% YoY. Infrastructure revenue surged 15% YoY. Free cash flow for the quarter reached $2.2 billion, according to an IBM statement.
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna kept full-year guidance intact after Q1.
“We continue to expect more than 5 percent constant currency revenue growth and an increase of about $1 billion in year-over-year free cash flow in 2026,” Arvind said in the company statement.
IBM has also raised its quarterly dividend for 31 consecutive years. It now sits at $1.69 per share and has paid consecutive quarterly dividends since 1916, according to the same statement.
Bloomberg via Getty Images
Guilfoyle’s quantum computing thesis and why he thinks IBM wins
Here is where Guilfoyle’s view diverges from the Wall Street consensus, and it’s the part I find most compelling as a longer-term setup.
IBM operates the world’s largest fleet of quantum computers. More than 90 quantum systems are deployed globally, which IBM mentions is more than the rest of the industry combined.
In June, IBM announced a commitment of more than $10 billion over the next five years to accelerate that progress, according to an IBM newsletter.
Related: IBM handed two major wins within 24 hours
Guilfoyle’s core argument is that IBM either outgrows smaller quantum competitors through cash flows generated by its other businesses or simply acquires whatever growth it needs. Either way, he sees IBM as the last man standing in a space most investors haven’t fully priced yet.
Trump’s executive orders gave the quantum thesis another boost. One directs federal agencies to accelerate quantum sensors and networks, while the other focuses on post-quantum cryptography, preparing for a future where quantum computers can crack today’s encryption standards.
The latter is especially relevant for IBM. Through Project Lightwell, IBM is working with Red Hat and Palo Alto Networks on cybersecurity tools designed to address emerging post-quantum threats.
Where Guilfoyle sets his targets
IBM developed a large cup-with-handle pattern stretching back to January. That’s a classically bullish formation. The selloff that formed the handle found support at IBM’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which Guilfoyle called key.
However, the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 200-day SMA both still need to be recaptured before the technical picture fully clears.
Relative strength has returned to neutral after running worse than that for more than a week. The daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) isn’t positioned for a bullish move yet, but has stopped deteriorating, according to the newsletter.
Also Read: International Business Machines Corporation Latest News and Stories
Guilfoyle’s price targets, in his own framework, are this. The immediate pivot is the 200-day SMA, which puts a near-term target around $340. The cup-with-handle pivot sits at $330. And the aggressive target — for those with conviction — is $410.
IBM trades at $262.96 as of June 24 close, according to Yahoo Finance. It is down 10.06% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500‘s 7.49% gain. IBM reports second-quarter 2026 earnings on Jul 22, 2026, and Guilfoyle expects CEO Krishna to address the quantum roadmap directly at that time.
The stock is struggling. The thesis, between JPMorgan’s software call and Guilfoyle’s quantum conviction, could give IBM some space to run to the upside.
Related: Wedbush resets IBM stock price target on AI momentum
