Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is no longer simply another AI stock chasing the latest Wall Street craze.
It’s emerging as one of the clearest tests of how much investors will pay for military AI.
That’s significant for more than just hedge funds and defense analysts. A carefully watched stock among individual investors, Palantir is a government contractor whose growth story increasingly relies on taxpayer-funded defense and intelligence operations.
Now, a report out of Japan is bringing that subject back into focus.
Japan is exploring the use of Palantir’s Maven Smart System for command-and-control operations of Self-Defense Forces, Anadolu Agency reported, quoting Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun. The Defense Ministry sources told the publication they are testing a Palantir system, but Japanese authorities have not formally confirmed the matter.
For Palantir bulls, the story is another indication that allied nations may view the company’s software as crucial defense infrastructure.
For the naysayers, the question is harder. Is Palantir becoming vital, or is Wall Street overpaying for a company whose largest prospects and biggest opportunities come with political and ethical baggage?
“Both parties have mutually agreed to harness Palantir’s advanced technology in support of war-related missions,” Palantir executive Josh Harris told Bloomberg in January 2024 about the company’s Israel Defense Ministry partnership.
Palantir’s Japan report matters to American investors
The Japan report is not just a foreign defense story.
It matters to American investors because Palantir is being priced as a defining AI company, not a quiet government contractor. Palantir recently traded at $112.93, giving the business a valuation of almost $290 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 126.
There is limited room for normal growth at such a valuation.
Palantir has to maintain showing its software can get firmly rooted inside governments, militaries, and big enterprises. A hypothetical deal with Japan would bolster that case, as Japan is an important U.S. partner in Asia and defense ministries are scrambling to update command systems.
The Maven Smart System is the centerpiece of that pitch.
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said the Maven Smart System was the Defense Department’s premier AI-enabled software platform, with Palantir as the main software integrator. It pulls from many data feeds and helps support military intelligence, targeting, and command-and-control activities.
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That is exactly why the potential seems vast.
Today’s forces are collecting giant volumes of data from satellites, drones, sensors and intelligence networks. The difficulty is making that information fast enough so that commanders can act on it.
Palantir wants to be the software layer that makes that possible.
Palantir’s Maven business is becoming central to the bull case
Palantir’s defense AI momentum is already extending beyond the U.S. military.
NATO on March 25, 2025, completed the procurement of the Palantir Maven Smart System NATO (MSS NATO), which is used by Allied Command Operations. NATO Communications and Information Agency confirmed the procurement, calling it a step toward modernizing NATO’s warfighting capabilities.
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This is important, since NATO is not a one-time customer. It is a sign to other allied governments that Palantir’s system is already making its way through major Western defense agencies.
Japan could be the next big test.
Japan plans to rewrite three key national security documents in 2026 to include AI in Self-Defense Forces command-and-control decision support systems, according to Anadolu Agency’s summary of the Asahi Shimbun report.
That’s an opening for Palantir, as Tokyo is looking at how AI should be integrated into its military system.
The company’s financials help explain why investors care so much.
Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was $1.63 billion, up 85% year over year, Palantir stated. The company upped its full-year 2026 sales projection and said revenue from the U.S. government increased 84% to $687 million.
That’s the most sanitized form of the bull thesis for regular investors.
Palantir is selling more than AI demos. It is monetizing AI demand into big government income and maybe scaling that approach with key U.S. partners.
FABRICE COFFRINI / Getty Images
Palantir’s defense AI growth comes with controversy
That same business that thrills Palantir investors also makes this stock particularly complex.
Palantir has come under fire for its cooperation with the military, immigration agencies, and surveillance-related technologies. Criticism has increased across Israel and Gaza.
In January 2024, the company confirmed its agreement with the Defense Ministry of Israel to provide technologies to support the country’s war effort. It did not release further specifics on what technology would be offered.
Activists, human rights groups, and some investors have criticized that cooperation.
Storebrand Asset Management, one of the biggest investors in the Nordic region, liquidated its interests in Palantir, Reuters reported. Storebrand worries that its work for Israel could put the asset manager at risk of breaching international humanitarian law and human rights. Reuters also said Palantir had previously justified its work for Israel.
Palantir has denied the major charges.
In a rebuttal released by the Business & Human Rights Resource Centre in April 2025, Palantir said reports concerning its operations in Israel and Gaza contained “numerous incorrect statements.”
The corporation stated its activities in Israel were prior to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack and consistent with its support of U.S. allies and liberal democracies. Palantir also denied allegations that it had been part of Israel’s Gospel or Lavender targeting systems.
Key takeaways for Palantir investors
- June 26:Anadolu Agency reports that Japan is considering Palantir’s Maven Smart System for Self-Defense Forces command-and-control operations, citing Asahi Shimbun.
- March 25, 2025: NATO finalizes its acquisition of Palantir Maven Smart System NATO for Allied Command Operations.
- January 2024: Palantir agrees to a strategic partnership with Israel’s Defense Ministry to support war-related missions, according to a Bloomberg article reprinted by Palantir.
- May 4, 2026: Palantir reports first-quarter revenue growth of 85% and U.S. government revenue growth of 84%.
For investors, the aim is not to settle the political dispute in a single stock story.
The thing is, the issue is now baked into Palantir’s investment thesis.
The more defensive AI work Palantir wins, the more it could validate the bull argument. However, the more it is involved in military systems the higher its reputational, regulatory, and political risk.
Palantir stock faces a question bigger than Japan
That’s why the Japan report matters beyond Tokyo.
The Palantir story for American retail investors is no longer only about whether AI demand is robust. That aspect is clear. The bigger question is whether Palantir can build a durable, high-margin growth engine out of defense AI without becoming too politically toxic for governments, institutions, or ESG-sensitive investors to own.
Japan’s own documented concerns make the situation plain.
Some officials in the Japanese government and ruling coalition are promoting the construction of a domestic AI command-and-control system in the medium to long term, the Anadolu Agency reports. Concerns include dependence on a foreign vendor and the safeguarding of critical military information.
That’s a commercial risk, not a political footnote.
Governments may wish to test Palantir’s speed, software, and systems on the battlefield. But they also may desire more control over their own critical defense infrastructure.
This puts Palantir in a formidable but precarious position. The company’s software might be critical enough that U.S. allies will contemplate using it in military decision-making. But once software is so vital, governments may decide they don’t want any one foreign seller to own too much of it.
For Palantir bulls, the reported interest from Japan is just one more proof that the company’s AI defense narrative is resonating.
For doubters, it’s a reminder that Palantir’s biggest growth prospect comes with a valuation problem and a controversy problem.
This dilemma is the quandary of the average investor.
Is Palantir constructing the operating system for Western defense AI? Wall Street is already pricing in a hefty premium for that possibility.
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