Apple (AAPL) is ramping up for an eventful spring. It’s the kind of “quietly huge” setup that AAPL stock investors love.
It plans several launches. One big narrative will dominate. And the scoreboard couldn’t be clearer.
For me, the narrative unfolds with the latest Apple earnings. CEO Tim Cook was dealing in superlatives when he described the December quarter as a “remarkable, record-breaking quarter.”
Apple reported $143.8 billion in revenue and said its installed base topped 2.5 billion active devices. That’s the type of scale that makes even “boring” refreshes become important events in the ecosystem.
But the scoreboard is starting to shift. In the earnings call, Cook said Apple continues to see “market pricing for memory increasing significantly.”
The comments suggest that Apple is issuing a reminder: The next few quarters may be less about demand and more about protecting its margins.
I am sure you’ve seen examples within your family of those who want to cling to their old, perfectly functional iPhones. The most common reason, at least in my experience, is that the new ones are too expensive.
Now the biggest-name users connected to the iPhone are Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, and Mark Zuckerberg. I’m confident their wallets will not get lighter due to the newest version of the iPhone.
However, Apple aims to prioritize the needs of the average user this time. It’s why in the next wave, it wants to make things more affordable, focusing on margin growth to widen the funnel.
Photo by ANGELA WEISS on Getty Images
iPhone 17e: Apple’s “more for $599” pitch
The launch of iPhone 17e is imminent, according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman.
It will carry four upgrades that matter in the real world. A19, MagSafe (as described by The Verge), Apple’s newer C1X modem, and its N1 connectivity chip are the upgrades included in what’s launching “imminently.”
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I bet you’re thinking, “Hey, I know a person who skipped the cheaper iPhone because it felt like a ‘yes, but…’ device.” However, MagSafe is looking to shake things up with car mounts, wallets, charging stands, and the whole accessory ecosystem.
And Apple is reportedly keeping the price at $599, targeting emerging markets and enterprise buyers. These buyers, in principle, care about reliability and total cost of ownership more than status.
The Apple iPad refresh is boring, and that’s kind of the point
The spring iPad story is simple and basic. The focus is on the same shells, with faster chips.
- The entry iPad is expected to jump to A18, according to Mac Rumors. That will bring Apple Intelligence support to Apple’s cheapest tablet for the first time.
- The iPad Air will move to M4.
If you’re the person everyone contacts when an older iPad begins to slow, this is the type of update that matters.
A base model that can operate Apple’s AI features cleanly gives Apple a straightforward pitch for schools, families, and companies that purchase in bulk.
Related: History of Apple: Company timeline and facts
The real catalyst: iOS 26.4 and the “Siri credibility” moment
Hardware is responsible for selling units, but software sells trust.
Gurman’s reporting says Apple will release the first developer beta of iOS 26.4 the week of Feb. 23.
Siri will also be available again after a lengthy wait. Apple Intelligence parts are likely to pop up there.
Wall Street “upgrades” are rolling in, but the margin story is the watch item
The recent upgrades are not eye-popping. I hate it when we speak in hyperbolic terms about any stock. That is what I like about the recent upgrades.
- Maxim upgraded Apple to buy from hold (PT $300).
- KGI Securities upgraded Apple to outperform from neutral (PT $306).
- Separately, J.P. Morgan reiterated its overweight rating and lifted its target to $315.
The short-term push-pull trajectory is evident, though. Demand, all things considered, remains very strong. However, the pricing strain of components, particularly memory, is becoming more pronounced.
What a “normal strong” Apple March quarter could look like
Apple is not traditional when it comes to revenue guidance.
Here are two simple ways investors frame the next quarter.
- Back-of-the-envelope range (year-over-year growth off last year’s March quarter): Apple did $95.4B in fiscal Q2 2025 revenue. If Apple prints +10% to +12% YoY (roughly in line with where many sell-side expectations cluster), that implies about $104.9 billion to $106.8 billion this March quarter.
- “Street” snapshot (consensus-style framing): FactSet estimates cited by Investor’s Business Daily peg the March quarter around $104.9 billion in revenue and $1.84 EPS.
However, there is a margin factor as well. Apple is guiding toward a gross margin for the ongoing quarter at 48% to 49%; Cook is flagging memory expenses as a growing headwind beyond Q2.
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