Silver hit $120 an ounce at the start of 2026. It is now stuck below $75. The metal has given back more than a third of its peak value, and the debate is whether that is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.
Bank of America’s answer is more complicated than either side wants to hear.
Bank of America foresees a silver spike
In its latest precious metals note, a team of commodity analysts at Bank of America led by Michael Widmer, the bank’s Head of Metals Research, said silver could rally above $100 per ounce again in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Analysts, however, warned that such a move would not last, according to Kitco News.
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“While a rally in gold could once again boost silver above $100/oz. in the coming months, we do not see silver outpacing on a sustained basis due to easing fundamental demand,” the analysts wrote.
Looking beyond 2026, BofA forecasts silver trading around $75 per ounce again by the second quarter of 2027, Kitco News confirmed.
The bank is simultaneously acknowledging a plausible near-term spike and a reversion to current levels within 18 months.
Why silver could hit $100, and why it would not stay there
The path to $100 runs through gold. When gold rallies sharply on geopolitical shocks or inflation fears, silver tends to amplify the move because it is smaller, more liquid, and more sensitive to speculative flows. BofA’s analysts believe a renewed gold surge could drag silver back through the $100 level on investor momentum alone, according to Kitco News.
But the same dynamic that creates the spike creates the reversal. Silver’s industrial consumption means its price is self-limiting in a way that gold’s isn’t. The higher silver goes, the more incentive manufacturers have to engineer it out of their processes.
BofA made that mechanism explicit. “As silver prices rose almost exponentially, market participants such as solar PV manufacturers faced immense margin pressure, incentivizing efforts to engineer silver out of industrial products,” the analysts wrote.
The consequence, in their own words: “Reduced usage means that the silver deficit could decline by 90% this year. Indeed, the deficit in 2026 is expected to be so small that even modest investor sales would be enough to flip the market into a surplus.”
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The solar problem and what it means for silver’s industrial base
One of the most specific concerns in BofA’s note is solar. Silver is a critical material in photovoltaic panels, and China’s solar PV manufacturing sector has been one of the largest sources of industrial silver demand in recent years.
BofA flagged a flatlining of solar PV production in China alongside a potential decline in solar installations as a direct headwind for industrial silver demand, Kitco News noted.
“While we see demand for silver increasing across a range of other sectors, these additions are too small to meaningfully boost industrial demand,” the analysts said.
That matters because it removes the fundamental support that would otherwise underpin a sustained rally. Silver is not gold. Its price cannot hold at elevated levels indefinitely on safe-haven flows alone if the industrial buyers who consume physical metal are cutting back.
Key figures from Bank of America’s latest silver note:
- Near-term call: Silver could rally above $100 per ounce in Q4 2026 if gold surges; BofA does not expect the level to hold, according to Kitco News.
- Year-end context: Silver rallied to $120 per ounce in early 2026 before falling back below $75; gold/silver ratio currently at approximately 59.43, IndexBox reported.
- 2027 forecast: BofA expects silver to trade around $75 per ounce again by Q2 2027, Kitco News confirmed.
- Deficit erosion: Silver market deficit could decline by 90% in 2026 due to falling industrial consumption; modest investor outflows could flip the market to surplus, Kitco News indicated.
- Solar headwind: Flatlining solar PV production in China and potential decline in solar installations flagged as direct drag on industrial silver demand, Kitco News confirmed.
- Analyst: Michael Widmer, Bank of America Head of Metals Research, led the note; Widmer’s prior silver calls in February and March 2026 flagged similar supply and demand dynamics.
- Peer forecasts: BofA average 2026 silver price estimate $85.93; Commerzbank $90 by year-end; JPMorgan average $81 with Q4 high of $85, according to Scottsdale Bullion.
What this means for investors holding or watching silver
BofA’s note is structured as a warning dressed up as a bull case. The $100 headline draws attention, but the actual message is that silver’s fundamentals are weakening at the same time its speculative upside is intact. That combination makes silver more of a trading vehicle than an investment thesis right now.
For investors who entered silver near the $120 high, the note offers little comfort. A return to $100 on a momentum spike followed by a reversion to $75 by mid-2027 is not a recovery. It is a prolonged period of holding a volatile asset below your cost basis.
For investors on the sideline, the asymmetry is more interesting. A gold-driven spike to $100 could offer a tactical opportunity for traders who can move quickly and exit before the industrial demand erosion reasserts itself.
BofA’s message is that the window would be short, the catalyst is external, and the long-term structural support is weaker than it was when silver was last trading above $100.
Related: HSBC resets silver price target for the rest of 2026
