Bitcoin closed last week above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a long-term trend level that Galaxy Research has tracked as a ceiling during bear markets, and the reclaim has drawn attention because of what it has meant historically. Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed at $81,159 on September 20, about 3% above the 50-week average of $78,786, and the cryptocurrency has since extended higher, touching roughly $85,200 on Monday, its strongest level in about four months, before easing to near $84,600, up more than 4% on the day, per TradingView data. The last time Bitcoin closed a week above the line was November 9, 2025, so this ends a stretch of 44 consecutive weekly closes below it.
Bitcoin climbed from around $76,000 to roughly $85,000 over five days, extending past its 50-week moving average. Source: TradingView.The signal comes from Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, who flagged the cross and framed its track record. “Regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are ‘in,'” he wrote on X, while cautioning that the current downturn remains provisional and that a single weekly close cannot establish a new bull market on its own. That balance, a genuinely notable signal paired with a real caveat, is how to read it.
🟠 BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS
regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are “in”
bitcoin is up 29% in 35 days pic.twitter.com/HzKVUrxMVz
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) September 21, 2026
A Weekly Close Above the 50-Week Moving Average Ends 44 Weeks Below It
The 50-week moving average is the average weekly closing price over roughly the past year, and traders use it as a proxy for Bitcoin’s long-term trend. During healthy advances Bitcoin tends to trade above the line, and during prolonged declines rallies often fail below it, which is why Galaxy has described the average as a kind of ceiling during major drawdowns. A weekly close above it, rather than an intraday poke through, is the version of the signal that carries weight, because the weekly candle only settles at 23:59 UTC on Sunday.
Bitcoin bottomed at $58,525 on June 30, a 53% drawdown from its October 2025 record above $124,000, and has since recovered about 39% in under three months, as CoinDesk reported. The weekly close now sits 3% above the 50-week average and 23.9% above the 200-week average of $65,487, a spread that Thorn reads as consistent with the floor behavior of the 2015 and 2018 bear markets.
11 of Galaxy’s 13 Past Reclaims Avoided a New Low
The historical record is what gives the cross its reputation, and Galaxy has quantified it. Examining major Bitcoin slumps since 2011, the firm found 13 instances when Bitcoin closed a week back above its 50-week moving average, and in 11 of them the market did not go on to set a new low, suggesting the worst of the decline had already passed. The two failures both came during the volatile 2021-2022 downturn, the December 26, 2021, and March 27, 2022, crossovers, when Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the line before rolling over toward $16,000.
The scale of the rallies that followed the successful reclaims is the eye-catching part, though Galaxy is careful to frame it. After the 2011 crash, Bitcoin reclaimed the average in January 2012 and went on to a roughly 600-fold rise, from around $2 to a then-record near $1,200 in late 2013. Galaxy stresses these multiples are approximate and are meant to illustrate the scale of subsequent moves rather than imply the crossover alone caused them, and past performance guarantees nothing.
Other analysts read the same data more bullishly, with Joe Consorti writing that a close above the average had historically carried a 75% chance of marking cycle lows, rising to 100% excluding the Covid crash, and posting “the bear is slain. Welcome (tentatively) to the bull market,” as reported by CryptoPotato.
Investor Takeaway
The confirmation levels are specific, with a sustained move above $83,000 the bull trigger and the $78,800 average the line that, if lost, would invalidate the signal Galaxy flagged
SEC Tokenized-Stock Relief and $591M of ETF Inflows Drove the Rebound
The move above the average did not happen in a vacuum, and several catalysts lined up behind it. Bitcoin recovered from below $76,000 in the middle of last week after the SEC opened a five-year conditional route for trading tokenized US stocks on September 17, granting “temporary, conditional exemptive relief” to tokenized-securities venues, per its own order, a step that coincided with improving sentiment across digital assets, though the agency did not attribute any Bitcoin move to it.
Institutional demand returned in size, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs drawing $591 million over two days and $433 million on September 18 alone, led by Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT, according to SoSoValue data. The rally also ran over the shorts, liquidating more than $603 million in positions across nearly 120,000 traders, and it follows the recent swing in crypto fund flows.
The regulatory backdrop is doing part of the work. With the Senate having failed to advance the CLARITY Act, crypto oversight has shifted toward agency action, and the SEC’s tokenized-stock relief is the clearest recent example of that route. Traders are now watching the planned Trump-Xi meeting, after Asian equities and crypto rallied on early signs of a productive US-China dialogue, alongside Wednesday’s flash US PMI data, which will shape rate expectations into the Fed’s late-October meeting.
The Yield Headwind That Could Invalidate the Signal
The clearest counterweight sits in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading near 4.96%, just under the 5% level that has repeatedly pressured risk assets this year, per TradingEconomics, and the Fed raised its benchmark to a 3.75% to 4.00% range in September with projections still pointing to another possible increase in 2026, the same rates backdrop behind Bitcoin’s earlier hold above $81,000 as oil risks mounted. A yield that grinds back above 5% would tighten financial conditions against exactly the risk appetite the rally depends on.
The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.96%, the standing headwind against Bitcoin’s rally. Source: TradingView.The other risk is that ETF demand reverses, since inflows are propping up the move as much as any technical signal, and flows can turn negative quickly. For now the levels to watch are clear, with analysts wanting a sustained move above $83,000 to confirm the trend reversal, while $80,000 is the first support and a loss of it opens $79,000, with the 50-week average near $78,800 the line the whole signal rests on.
Investor Takeaway
The confirmation levels are specific, with a sustained move above $83,000 the bull trigger and the $78,800 average the line that, if lost, would invalidate the signal Galaxy flagged
