The XAU/USD chart indicates that gold has fallen beneath the 12 February lows, marking a fresh ten-day trough. Media coverage points to several drivers behind the weakness:
→ A reduction in geopolitical risk. Ongoing discussions involving the US and Iran, as well as Russia and Ukraine, have trimmed the safe-haven premium.
→ Softer US inflation data. This may be reshaping market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy stance in 2026.
→ Holiday-thinned trading conditions. With Presidents’ Day in the US and Lunar New Year in Asia, lower volumes have created a thinner market environment, increasing susceptibility to sharp and speculative moves.
On 9 February, our assessment of gold’s price action:
→ reaffirmed the relevance of the long-term ascending channel;
→ highlighted that, after a surge in volatility at month-end, the market might move towards stabilisation;
→ outlined the possibility of narrowing price fluctuations, with consolidation likely around the psychological $5k threshold.
Between 9 and 12 February, price action confirmed this outlook, forming a consolidation band just above $5k — specifically between resistance R1 and support S1.
XAU/USD Technical Perspective
A failed upside breakout (marked by an arrow) exposed the bulls’ lack of follow-through, effectively setting a trap for buyers.
This development handed the advantage to sellers, who managed to push prices below S1. The former support subsequently turned into resistance (R2).
The latest decline suggests:
→ sellers continue to dominate, as seen in the break of secondary support S2;
→ however, the lower boundary of the long-term rising channel remains a significant support area that could favour buyers.
Notably, during February the price has twice returned within the broader upward channel. A sustained move inside this structure remains possible. Moreover, a convincing break above the descending resistance line (shown in red) would strengthen the case for a bullish flag breakout scenario.
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