Three of the market’s most-watched space and eVTOL names, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Archer Aviation, all report second-quarter results after today’s close, within roughly ninety minutes of each other. All three have rallied hard over the past week, and all three now have to justify that bounce with numbers.
The catch is that “the numbers” mean something different for each. These stocks trade as a single thematic basket, and investors who hold them through thematic ETFs or CFDs are exposed to all three at once. But Rocket Lab will be judged on a rocket that has not yet flown, AST SpaceMobile on satellites and cash, and Archer on regulatory paperwork. Tonight, one basket trade gets priced on three unrelated milestones, which is exactly why the correlation that has moved them together is likely to break tomorrow.
What Reports When
All three release after the US market closes today, August 10. Rocket Lab confirmed a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. AST SpaceMobile holds its second-quarter business update at 5:00 p.m. Eastern the same afternoon, and Archer’s results and operating update follow after the close as well, on a 2:00 p.m. Pacific webcast, which is also 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The clustering is near-simultaneous, and it lands after a week in which the whole group recovered sharply, a rebound FinanceFeeds traced to the reversal of the “SpaceX Effect” that had dragged the sector down through July.
Rocket Lab: Neutron Matters More Than the Print
Rocket Lab is the largest and most closely watched of the three, and its quarterly figures are almost beside the point. Wall Street expects revenue of about $231.6 million, up roughly 60% year over year, with a loss of somewhere between three and six cents a share, depending on the estimate. The company guided to $225 million to $240 million, so the revenue line is unlikely to surprise much either way.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) fell from above $150 in late May to the low $60s by late July before rebounding about 25% over the past week to near $83 ahead of earnings. Source: TradingViewWhat the market actually wants is an update on Neutron, the medium-lift rocket that is central to Rocket Lab’s future and has not yet made its first flight. Progress on Neutron’s development timeline, and on the high-margin defense work behind last month’s $397 million Space Force award, will move the stock far more than the quarter’s EPS. Investors will also want to hear how management folds its recent acquisitions, Iridium’s satellite communications business, plus Mynaric and Motiv, into a coherent growth story.
Options markets are pricing a move of roughly 15.7% on the print, a measure of how much rides on the commentary rather than the numbers. For the fuller valuation picture, FinanceFeeds’ Rocket Lab forecast maps a bull case to $293, a base case to $111 and a bear case to $76.
Investor Takeaway
Rocket Lab trades on Neutron’s schedule, not this quarter’s loss, so a revenue beat paired with a Neutron delay could still sink the stock.
AST SpaceMobile: Deployment Cadence and the Cash Question
AST SpaceMobile is judged on an entirely different axis: how fast it can put satellites in orbit and whether it has the cash to keep doing so. The company is building a space-based cellular network to connect ordinary smartphones directly to satellites, and its value rests on deployment speed, not current revenue, which remains minimal.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) slid from above $130 in late May to the mid-$50s by late July, then recovered roughly 19% over the past week to near $72 into its business update. Source: TradingViewThe two numbers that matter tonight are the pace of its BlueBird satellite launches and its cash position, since building a constellation is enormously capital-intensive and the market watches its runway closely. The company’s investor relations page will carry the update. AST has nearly 60 carrier partners representing billions of potential subscribers, so the demand side is not the question; execution and funding are. FinanceFeeds’ ASTS analysis lays out a bull case to $108 and a bear case to $41, a spread that reflects exactly how binary the deployment-and-cash outcome is.
Archer: Certification Is the Scorecard
Archer Aviation is not really a space company at all, but it trades in the same speculative-frontier basket, and its scorecard is different again: progress toward FAA certification of its electric air taxi. Archer earns little revenue and is pre-commercial, so its quarterly financials tell investors less than its regulatory milestones do.
Archer Aviation (ACHR) drifted from above $7 in late May to the mid-$4s through the summer before recovering about 17% over the past week to near $5.60 ahead of its update. Source: TradingViewThe company flagged record FAA certification progress last quarter and has said it expects initial US operations in 2026, so tonight’s update on where that certification stands and whether the 2026 timeline holds is the real test. Archer is the smallest of the three by search interest and the furthest from revenue, which makes its certification cadence the single variable that matters. FinanceFeeds’ Archer forecast frames a bull case at $18 against a bear case at $4.28, the widest relative spread of the three and a measure of how much rides on the regulatory path.
Why the Basket Breaks Tomorrow
The through-line is that a single trade is about to fragment. For weeks, these three have moved together, down in July’s SpaceX-driven rotation, then up in the August recovery, as if they were one asset. Tonight, they report on a rocket’s flight readiness, a constellation’s build rate, and an aircraft’s certification, three milestones with nothing in common except the speculative sentiment that binds them.
That matters most for anyone holding the theme rather than the individual names. A thematic ETF or a basket CFD treats RKLB, ASTS and ACHR as correlated, but tomorrow morning they could move in three different directions on three unrelated results. A strong Neutron update and a weak Archer certification print would pull the basket apart, and the diversification that felt like safety on the way up becomes exposure to three separate binary events on the way through earnings. The space trade has rallied as one. After tonight’s reports, it is about to be judged as three.
Investor Takeaway
Basket and thematic-ETF holders are exposed to three unrelated catalysts at once tonight, so the theme’s correlation is a risk, not a cushion, through earnings.
