Your pain at the pump may finally be easing, but not as quickly as many had hoped.
You can feel it every time you pull in to fill up. Prices aren’t surging like they were just weeks ago, but they’re not really coming down, either. After weeks of watching costs climb with every new headline out of the Middle East, the relief feels more like a pause than a true reversal.
All the chaos tied to the Iran conflict leaves drivers wondering if the worst is actually behind them or just catching its breath. That’s how quickly global tensions can hit close to home.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says gasoline prices have likely already peaked following months of volatility tied to the conflict in Iran. Still, he cautions that prices could remain above $3 per gallon well into 2026.
That message lands at a critical moment for consumers and markets alike. The national average for regular gasoline is $4.048 per gallon, according to AAA, a sharp jump from roughly $3.16 a year ago.
“But prices have likely peaked, and they will start going down,” the secretary added. “Certainly, with a resolution of this conflict, you will see prices go down. Prices across the board on energy prices will go down.”
At least Wright’s outlook offers some optimism. Relief is coming, but it may arrive slower than expected. And much of that timeline depends on how global tensions evolve in the coming months.
Energy secretary says gas prices have likely peaked
Wright’s core message is short. He says the worst may already be behind us.
“Prices have likely peaked, and they’ll start going down,” he said during an April 19 appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
However, Wright stopped short of promising a quick return to cheaper fuel. While sub-$3 gasoline is possible, he suggested that milestone may not arrive until 2027, depending on how conditions unfold.
“I don’t know. That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year,” Wright told CNN.
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That view contrasts slightly with that of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He said last week he expects gasoline prices to ease during the summer driving season, telling reporters at the White House he’s “optimistic that sometime between June 20 and Sept. 20, that we can have $3 gas again,” Bloomberg reports.
Despite the differing timelines, both officials agree that prices should decline as geopolitical tensions ease. According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline was around $4.10 per gallon last week, up sharply from under $3 before the war with Iran began on Feb. 28.
U.S gasoline prices surged hard in March 2026
The biggest driver behind these recent price swings has been the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for more than 20% of global oil shipments, have squeezed supply and pushed prices sharply higher.
U.S. gasoline prices surged in March 2026, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting an average of $3.638 per gallon ($0.96 per liter), the highest level since September 2023, Trading Economics confirms.
The data also showed the national average climbing to $4.02 per gallon by month-end, crossing the $4 mark for the first time since 2022 as Middle East tensions disrupted global oil markets.
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Prices at the pump rose by roughly $1 per gallon in just one month following the U.S.-Israel offensive against Iran, a 34.7% jump from February’s $2.98. The surge outpaced even the spikes seen after Hurricane Katrina and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Trading Economics, making it one of the sharpest increases in decades.
Although a temporary ceasefire has been reached, uncertainty remains. President Donald Trump has suggested the conflict could be “very close to over,” while also warning of potential escalation if negotiations fail.
That uncertainty continues to ripple through energy markets. For us as consumers, the impact has been immediate and uneven.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
5 states with the highest gas prices
Not all drivers are feeling the same level of pain. States such as California ($5.839 per gallon), Hawaii ($5.670), and Washington ($5.383) are seeing regular prices well above the national average.
Oregon and Nevada take the fourth and fifth spots, respectively, with some regions approaching $6 per gallon. Meanwhile, AAA shows that other states remain closer to the $4 range.
Several factors explain the gap:
- Higher state and local fuel taxes
- Distance from refineries and supply infrastructure
- Environmental regulations requiring specialized fuel blends
These differences mean that even if national prices fall, relief may arrive at different speeds depending on location.
Gasoline isn’t the only commodity affected. Jet fuel prices have also surged, prompting concerns across the airline industry about supply shortages and rising operational costs.
Sean Duffy said those pressures should ease as the conflict subsides, potentially lowering travel costs over time. In the long run, that could benefit consumers beyond the gas pump, from airfare to shipping costs.
What falling gas prices could mean for the economy
The direction of fuel prices carries broader economic implications. Lower gas prices can ease inflation, boost consumer spending, and improve overall sentiment. Higher prices, on the other hand, act like a tax on households, reducing disposable income.
An April 9-13 poll by Quinnipiac University highlights growing pressure on policymakers, with 65% of voters blaming President Trump for rising gas prices and 57% disapproving of his handling of the economy.
The data shows how closely energy costs are tied to public sentiment, as higher prices at the pump continue to shape views on inflation, economic stability, and political leadership.
So, what’s the slow road back to cheaper fuel?
If tensions ease and oil flows stabilize, prices could fall faster than expected. If not, elevated costs may linger longer into 2026. For now, you may need to adjust expectations.
The era of sub-$3 gas isn’t gone. But according to the U.S. energy chief, it may take a bit longer to return than many were hoping.
Related: One airline is adding a fuel surcharge in reverse
