Palantir stock has been one of the market’s biggest winners, rising over 500% in the past 5 years and 73% in the past 12 months alone.
But the stock is now down 13% so far in 2026. Against that backdrop, UBS is making a bold call on Palantir, doubling down on the company’s upside even after its massive run.
Palantir valuation snapshot
For those unfamiliar with Palantir, the company provides data analytics and AI software to governments and enterprises. Palantir makes money through software contracts and ongoing usage, with higher-margin revenue coming from its core platforms like Gotham, Foundry, and AIP as customers scale deployments over time.
- Market cap: $349.9 billion
- Enterprise value: $340.3 billion
- Share price: $147
- Analysts’ avg target price: $187 (27% implied upside)
- 2-Year expected annual EPS growth: 57.5%
- Forward P/E ratio: 110.6x
Source: TIKR.com
UBS raises price target as growth holds
UBS raised its price target on Palantir from $180 to $200 and maintained a buy rating. This price target implies about 36% upside for the stock from current levels.
UBS has previously called Palantir a “premier growth story.” The upgrade follows another strong quarter, with Palantir reporting $0.25 in EPS versus $0.23 expected and $1.41 billion in revenue, up 70% year over year.
Firms like UBS still see Palantir’s bull case as intact, but expectations are now high enough that execution needs to stay strong to support further upside.
February’s strong guidance changed Palantir’s setup
Palantir’s investment case changed when management guided for Q1 revenue of $1.532 billion to $1.536 billion and full-year 2026 revenue of $7.18 billion to $7.20 billion. This implies Palantir will see 61% revenue growth for full-year 2026.
This guidance was well ahead of expectations, with prior quarterly revenue consensus of around $1.31 billion.
A company guiding to roughly 60% revenue growth for 2026 is saying pilot-to-production conversion is already happening at scale.
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Palantir’s fourth-quarter 2025 results reinforced that message. The company posted a “rule of 40” score of 127%, an all-time high, showing profitability is accelerating alongside revenue.
Bootcamps are accelerating enterprise AI adoption
Another major reason investors are giving Palantir more credit is its go-to-market model. Management has increasingly positioned AIP bootcamps as a way to compress enterprise AI sales cycles, and that has become central to the 2026 story. The process can cut the sales cycle from months to days.
If that holds, Palantir gains more than lead generation. It proves ROI early, gets into production faster, and gives customers fewer chances to standardize on another vendor.
Across software, AI spending is moving out of pilots and into production budgets tied to measurable workflow outcomes.
Palantir’s growth targets require customers to move from proof-of-concept to production far faster than in a traditional software rollout. The bootcamp model is designed to do exactly that.
Laurent Hou via Getty Images
In Q4 2025, Palantir closed 180 deals worth at least $1 million, including 84 deals of at least $5 million and 61 deals of at least $10 million. That deal velocity matters because it shows demand is turning into contracts at scale.
U.S. commercial revenue rose 137% year over year in Q4 2025, well ahead of the company’s 70% overall growth.
The risk is that this now has to continue. Hitting the full-year target depends on bootcamps continuing to produce production deployments quickly enough for revenue to be recognized inside 2026.
What could push Palantir higher
- Faster AIP bootcamp conversion shortens sales cycles and pulls enterprise revenue into the current fiscal year
- Production deployments replacing pilot work increase contract size and improve revenue visibility
- Larger AIP expansions deepen customer spend and lift average revenue per client
- Stronger U.S. commercial adoption broadens the revenue mix and reduces reliance on federal growth
- Mission-critical government renewals extend contract duration and support a more durable base
- Higher software mix on scaled AIP usage expands margins and strengthens earnings leverage
What could pressure the stock
- Customers stalling after bootcamps delay production rollouts and weaken near-term revenue recognition
- Federal procurement bottlenecks push awards out of the quarter and disrupt growth against elevated expectations
- Heavy reliance on a small number of large deployments increases volatility if expansion decisions slip
- Premium valuation leaves little room for execution misses
- Commercial AI buyers consolidating vendors could slow share gains and customer additions
- Faster hiring and infrastructure spending could dilute margin gains if revenue timing slips
Key takeaways for investors
What changed is simple: Palantir’s February guidance reset moved the story from AI potential to near-term execution. UBS’s price target increase from $180 to$200 reflects that shift.
The stock now depends less on long-term imagination and more on whether Palantir can sustain faster revenue conversion without introducing more volatility.
If bootcamps continue producing scaled deployments and government business remains steady, Palantir’s premium multiple has support. If not, even a modest miss could hit the stock hard.
Related: Wall Street resets Amazon stock price targets on AWS AI trends
