Bybit Review: BTC Posts Worst Week Since FTX, Hits $59,130

Bitcoin posted its worst single-week decline since the November 2022 FTX collapse during the 2–8 June trading week, according to Bybit’s latest options review. The exchange’s analysts report BTC fell from a roughly $73,760 weekly open to a low of $59,130 — its first trip below $60,000 since October 2024 — before a wave of dip-buying and short-covering lifted it back toward $63,000. The note is explicit that nothing in it constitutes investment advice.

Three forces in collision

Bybit attributes the severity of the move to three pressures hitting at once. The first was macro: a US non-farm payrolls report that came in well above expectations, which the review says reignited rate-hike pricing for later in 2026 rather than merely reinforcing “higher for longer.” With the 10 June CPI release looming, labour-market strength of that magnitude removed any near-term prospect of a dovish Fed pivot.

The second was a liquidity vacuum. The SpaceX IPO — scheduled for 12 June at a near-$1.8 trillion valuation — represents what Bybit calls the largest liquidity draw from the market in years, compounded by tech giants like Meta shifting from buybacks to new equity issuance.

The third was an internal shock. Strategy sold just 32 BTC for around $2.5 million — only 0.0038% of its 843,700 BTC holdings — but the review argues the market’s concern was the signal, not the size. With an average cost basis near $75,700, Strategy was carrying roughly $10.8 billion in unrealised losses at $63,000, and sold for the first time since 2022 to meet preferred-share dividend obligations running at an annualised rate of approximately 11.5%. Bybit notes a 8 June update: Strategy resumed buying, acquiring 1,550 BTC between 1 and 7 June at an average of $65,332, which the review reads as confirmation that the sale was a one-off liquidity event rather than a strategic shift.

Record ETF outflows added mechanical pressure

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest weekly net outflow to date at $1.7 billion, led by $1.34 billion from BlackRock’s IBIT. Bybit highlights Citi analysis suggesting ETF flows account for roughly 45% of BTC’s weekly return variation — meaning the outflows were not merely a sentiment signal but a mechanical source of downward pressure, as the vehicles that absorbed supply during the recovery became net contributors to the decline.

Historic oversold readings

The technical picture reached extremes. Ethereum’s daily RSI fell to 12.78 — described as the most extreme oversold reading ever recorded for ETH — while Bitcoin’s daily RSI hit 15.45. Bybit frames the simultaneous readings as a market-wide capitulation event rather than coincidence, noting that a Zcash security vulnerability triggered “indiscriminate selling” in which unaffected assets like Monero sold off sharply alongside ZEC, a hallmark of a fragile, panic-driven market.

The review is careful to distinguish signal from conclusion: extreme oversold readings raise the probability of a short-term technical bounce but do not confirm a trend reversal. It judges that a 10–15% relief rally from the lows is within historical precedent, while noting the risk/reward on new short positions at current levels is poor.

DVOL and the volatility trade

The week vindicated a Put-options trade Bybit had built when its DVOL volatility index sat at a historic low of 35. As BTC crashed, DVOL spiked to roughly 55 before pulling back to 48 — creating what the review calls a “double tailwind” for put buyers, as the underlying moved in their favour and implied volatility expanded simultaneously. Bybit closed the position in profit and notes that at 48, DVOL is normalising: no longer cheap enough to favour buyers, nor elevated enough to make seller strategies like iron condors attractive given unresolved directional risk.

Outlook

Bybit’s stance into the 9–15 June week is to protect the profit and avoid chasing longs despite the extreme oversold conditions. The review cites five reasons for caution: unstabilised ETF outflows, the unresolved 10 June CPI, the undigested Strategy variable, ongoing SpaceX IPO liquidity competition, and a DVOL level that is normalising but not yet seller-friendly. It identifies $60,000 for BTC and $1,500 for ETH as key structural supports that held on multiple tests, and sets a sustained hold above $65,000 on volume — not merely a bounce off the lows — as the trigger that would confirm a tradeable directional low.

FAQ

How far did Bitcoin fall during the 2–8 June week?
According to Bybit, Bitcoin fell from a weekly open of approximately $73,760 to a low of $59,130 — its first move below $60,000 since October 2024 — before recovering to around $63,000. The review describes it as Bitcoin’s worst single-week percentage decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

What caused the sell-off?
Bybit attributes the decline to three simultaneous forces: a much stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report that reignited rate-hike expectations, the SpaceX IPO scheduled for 12 June draining market liquidity, and Strategy selling Bitcoin for the first time since 2022 to meet preferred-share dividend obligations. Record $1.7 billion ETF outflows added mechanical downward pressure.

What is Bybit’s strategy outlook?
Bybit closed its recommended Put options in profit and is not chasing long positions despite historically extreme oversold readings. It is watching the 10 June CPI release and the 12 June SpaceX IPO, and identifies a sustained hold above $65,000 on volume as the signal that would confirm a tradeable directional low.

The week leaves the market at a genuine inflection point: historically extreme oversold readings argue for a near-term bounce, while unresolved macro pressures, record ETF outflows and the SpaceX liquidity draw argue for continued caution. As Bybit’s analysts stress, capitulation-level readings improve the odds of a relief rally without confirming a bottom — and with the 10 June CPI print landing as this is published, the next directional cue may already be in the market. This article summarises Bybit’s research and does not constitute investment advice.